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Introduction and objective: To establish some new prognostic factors for recurrence and progression of none muscle invasive bladder carcinoma (NMIBC) managed conservatively in real-world clinical practice. Materials and methods: A total of 115 patients with non muscle invasive bladder carcinoma managed between January 2010 and October 2016 were included in the present single center study. The following prognostic factors were studied for each patient: sex, lack of health coverage, economic incomes, rural origin, shortage of BCG therapy products when needed, persistent exposure to carcinogen, tumor size> 3cm, tumor multifocality, tumor stage, tumor grade, and hydronephrosis. Statistical analysis was performed by Kaplan-Meier method. Results: The mean age of our patients was 60 years, with a male predominance (88.7%). All our patients had complete transurethral resection in one or two sessions. However, BCG therapy was administered to 80 patients (69. 56%). Though, long BCG therapy protocol (more than one year period) was achieved in 56 patients (48. 69%). No patient had Mytomycine C during our study period. After a mean follow-up of 28 months, tumor recurrence was reported in 34 patients (29.5%) and tumor progression in 18 cases (15.6%). Nevertheless, 63 patients (55%) were recurrence free. NMIBC recurrence and progression prognostic factors statistic results are resumed in table 1. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the first study that came up with some new prognostic factors directly linked to the recurrence and progression of NMIBC in our real world practice. The shortage of BCG therapy products was reported as a significant new prognostic factor for both NMIBC recurrence and progression. However, our study had proved the lack of health coverage, the low economic incomes, and the rural origin as new and statistically significant prognostic factors for only NMIBC recurrence in our area. Further prospective studies including larger cohort of patients are needed in order to confirm our new NMIBC recurrence and progression prognostic factors and especially related to the impact BCG therapy products shortage.
